Heating, Cooling & Refrigeration · Projected milestone
Radiative cooling assists refrigeration across climates
75% by 2038 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
Three independently monitored refrigeration demonstrations in distinct climates report twelve months of normalized electricity use, with at least 20% savings from radiative heat rejection against a declared matched baseline.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: field validation
radiative water-cooling integration demonstrated; multi-climate annual criterion unverified
Timing window: 2027–2038. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: Three independently monitored refrigeration demonstrations in distinct climates report twelve months of normalized electricity use, with at least 20% savings from radiative heat rejection against a declared matched baseline. Resolve only from inspectable evidence meeting every stated criterion; a plan or extrapolation does not resolve it.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
- Food waste halvedForecast · ~2045scales with
Sources & evidence
- Passive radiative cooling below ambient air temperature under direct sunlight 2014
A 2014 photonic radiator demonstrated below-ambient daytime cooling under specific outdoor conditions.
- Stanford: cooling system without electricity 2017
Radiative water cooling and modeling of integration with refrigeration; modeled savings must not be reported as broad field outcomes.
Astra editorial synthesis; cited researchers retain credit for their results
Record reviewed 2026-10-18