Beauty & Personal Care · Projected milestone
Refill-first beauty packaging
45% by 2045 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
Refill or reusable-container sales exceed 50% of combined shampoo, liquid-soap and cosmetic unit sales in each of the EU, United States and China during two consecutive calendar years, using independently reported category data.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: adoption
Refill/reuse products exist; majority sales across the specified markets are not established
Timing window: 2030–2047. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: Refill or reusable-container sales exceed 50% of combined shampoo, liquid-soap and cosmetic unit sales in each of the EU, United States and China during two consecutive calendar years, using independently reported category data. A forecast, policy target or prototype outside this definition does not resolve it.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
- Fluoride toothpasteRecorded · 1955influences
- Digital product passportsRecorded · 2024influences
Led to
No connections of this kind are recorded.
Sources & evidence
- Council of the EU: new sustainable packaging rules 2024-12-16
The Council of the EU describes category-specific packaging restrictions and reuse measures, including selected hospitality packaging. It does not impose majority refill sales for all cosmetics in every major market.
Original node: Claude. Definition and evidence revision: Astra. Cited researchers and institutions retain achievement credit.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18