AI Safety & Governance · Projected milestone
Verified AI arms control
Estimated year~2050
25% by 2055 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
International inspection regimes monitor powerful AI systems.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)
Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
- Climate-intervention securityForecast · ~2062enables
- AI governance beyond EarthForecast · ~2068enables
- Nuclear weapons dismantledForecast · ~2070enables
- Rules for self-replicating machinesForecast · ~2070enables
- AI-mediated arms treatiesForecast · ~2075enables
- Global coordination on AI and climateForecast · ~2075enables
- AI misuse sentinelsForecast · ~2091enables
Sources & evidence
No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.
Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.