Commerce & Finance · Projected milestone
Outcome-audited career transition accounts
45% by 2040 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
A national or large regional programme combines portable training budgets, paid work placements and temporary earnings support for at least 100,000 workers, publishing independently evaluated two-year employment and earnings outcomes.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: institutional deployment
Components exist; the defined interoperable service has not been established by cited sources.
Timing window: 2029–2040. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.
Completion criteria: A national or large regional programme combines portable training budgets, paid work placements and temporary earnings support for at least 100,000 workers, publishing independently evaluated two-year employment and earnings outcomes. Resolve only from inspectable deployments and independent operating evidence meeting every criterion.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
Sources & evidence
- OECD: Advancing Adult Skills through Individual Learning Accounts 2025-06-30
Portable individual training entitlements already exist. Access, funding, quality assurance and worker participation matter for effective schemes.
- ILO: Refined global index of GenAI occupational exposure 2025-05-20
Task exposure is measured across occupations. One quarter of global employment has some exposure, which does not establish displacement.
Astra projection; cited institutions retain credit for foundational work.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18