Lighting · Projected milestone

LED lamps near the efficiency limit

Estimated year~2035

55% by 2040 · including earlier years

The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.

Everyday LED lamps reach about 250 lumens per watt, close to the physical limit for good white light, using a sixth of a 2010 bulb's power.

What the forecast means

Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)

Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.

This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.

No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.

Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.