Medicine · Projected milestone
In-silico clinical trials
Estimated year~2040
30% by 2045 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
Drugs are largely tested on simulated patients before human trials.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)
Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
- Monte Carlo methodRecorded · 1946requires
- AI accelerator chipsRecorded · 2016requires
- Exascale supercomputerRecorded · 2022requires
- Computationally designed drug reaches FDA reviewRecorded · 2026enables
- Organ-chip assay qualifies for drug decisionsForecast · ~2029influences
- Virtual cell modelsForecast · ~2034enables
- Personal medical digital twinForecast · ~2035enables
- Zettascale supercomputersForecast · ~2035enables
- Quantum chemistry advantageForecast · ~2037enables
- Body on a chipForecast · ~2038enables
Led to
Sources & evidence
No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.
Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.