Robotics & Automation · Projected milestone
Robot hands as deft as ours
60% by 2031 · including earlier years
The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.
Robot hands with fine touch handle cables, fabric and tiny screws as reliably as human hands on real production lines.
Explore this milestone on the interactive mapWhat the forecast means
Milestone stage: demonstration
partially-demonstrated
Capable manipulation in selected tasks; human-comparable multi-material reliability remains partial.
Completion criteria: Independent customer results cover all three material/task classes with disclosed cycle time, failure/rework rate and intervention over at least 1,000 cycles per class. A curated video or a single part does not qualify.
This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.
Built on
Led to
Sources & evidence
- Helix 2.5: Zero-shot generalization across 30 homes 2026-09-17
Figure reports three trained behaviors tested in thirty unseen homes without home-specific tuning, with aggregate whole-task success increasing from 9% to 56%. This is meaningful transfer and still falls short of dependable general household autonomy.
- BMW Group advances Physical AI with Figure 03 in Spartanburg 2026-06-25
BMW describes the completed Figure 02 production pilot and a new Figure 03 logistics use case. A pilot doing productive work is strong capability evidence; the announcement does not establish broad routine commercial staffing.
Record reviewed 2026-10-18