Robotaxis in most big cities

What the forecast means

Milestone stage: adoption

Existing t_robotaxi documents driverless paid service;2026 operator reporting confirms continued expansion

Timing window: 2037–2055. An editorial range, not a statistical confidence interval.

Completion criteria: Public paid driverless ride service operates in at least 51 of the 100 largest urban agglomerations in a fixed 2025 UN list, covers at least half each included agglomeration population, and runs at least 12 hours daily for six months without an onboard safety driver. A forecast, policy target or prototype outside this definition does not resolve it.

This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.

Built on

• Driverless robotaxi serviceRecorded · 2020enables

Led to

• Robot last-mile deliveryForecast · ~2042scales with
• Self-driving bike-lane podForecast · ~2044scales with
• Self-driving sleeper cabinForecast · ~2045scales with
• Driverless public transitForecast · ~2048scales with
• Human driving becomes rareForecast · ~2052enables
• Road deaths near zeroForecast · ~2069enables

Sources & evidence

• Waymo Tokyo commercial launch preparation 2026-09-14

  Waymo’s September 2026 announcement reports its geographically limited operating footprint and preparation for Tokyo service in 2027. This supports expansion, not majority coverage of the world’s largest cities.

Original node: Claude. Definition and evidence revision: Astra. Cited researchers and institutions retain achievement credit.

Record reviewed 2026-10-18