Veterinary & Animal Tech · Projected milestone

African swine fever vaccine

Estimated year~2030

41% by 2035 · including earlier years

The year is an editorial timing estimate. The percentage applies to occurrence by the stated deadline. These estimates are not calibrated odds.

A safe, licensed vaccine protects pigs worldwide from African swine fever, which killed a quarter of the world's pigs after 2018.

What the forecast means

Milestone stage: milestone (legacy definition)

Completion criteria: Legacy milestone: refine the observable threshold before resolving.

This page describes a forecast, rather than an achieved result. Read the methodology and assumptions.

No individual source links are recorded for this milestone. Source coverage and review status vary across the atlas.

Dataset updated 2026-10-18. This individual record has not been separately re-reviewed.